2025
PREPARED BY
info@kaden.nyc
www.kaden.nyc
One World Trade Center Ste 8500 New York, NY 10007 KADEN
Manhattan recorded 3.7mm SF of new leases in August 2025, more than 20% above July’s pace.
Major deals include Deloitte’s ~800k SF pre-lease at 70 Hudson Yards and Piper Sandler’s 140k SF
lease at 1301 Sixth Avenue (Paramount Plaza). These commitments confirm that large blocks are
still being absorbed by blue-chip tenants.
• Avison Young reports Manhattan’s
overall availability rate fell to 16.4% in Q2
2025 — the lowest in more than four
years. Lower supply typically translates to
stronger landlord leverage and tightening
concessions in quality assets.
Source 1: Avison Young Market Intelligence
Retail Hits Cycle Lows
• Cushman & Wakefield data show prime retail availability dropped to 12.8% across 11 premier
corridors — the tightest since 2014. Combined with stronger retail sales and foot traffic, investors
in core retail assets are realizing 6–12%+ IRR targets in stabilized properties.
Restaurants under Margin Pressure
Industry benchmarks show full-service restaurants net ~3–5%, while quick-service / fast-casual
achieve 6–9%. Digital channels are key: Square finds first-party online ordering delivers ~64%
higher margins than third-party platforms, underscoring the value of controlling your digital
infrastructure in booking catering opportunities.
Capital flows to Real Assets
• Institutional investors have rotated capital away from an oversupplied VC/tech market into
real assets (real estate, infrastructure, natural resources). BlackRock commentary notes
improved relative performance in 2024–2025 as allocators sought yield and inflation protection.
•We expect continued resilience in leasing and retail into late 2025. That said, we advise clients
to prepare for potential re-pricing in 2026 as rates, cap rates, and global liquidity reset. Our
house view models a 10–20% decline in the benchmark (S&P 500) correction scenario.
Source 2: Restroworks (2025). Restaurant Profitability Statistics: Startup Performance, Margins & Industry Benchmarks — Restroworks Blog
Source 3: BusinessWire (2025). Square Data Shows How 2025’s Economic Volatility Is Impacting the Restaurant Industry
Source 4: BlackRock (2025). 2025 Private Markets Outlook — BlackRock Institutional Insights
Source 5: Cushman & Wakefield (2025). Q2 Manhattan Retail Report
Operators who embrace strategic decision-making—whether through tax planning,
conversions, or optimized leasing—will be the ones who thrive.
1. What do I need to know to unlock Tax & Zoning Benefits? Maximize
conversions with tax breaks, abatements, and regulatory advantages.
2. How do I ‘Convert Smart, Lease Smart’? Structure conversions to optimize leasing terms and long-term revenue.
3. Would it hurt to capitalize on Brooklyn & Queens Growth? Invest where demand is surging and rental rates remain strong.
4.What’s my Greatest Obtainable Market Q1&2? Maximize Market Share. Target the most profitable segment—20% of the obtainable market.
Kaden brings deep market knowledge and expertise to complex transactions, addressing all landlord challenges under one roof.
(212) 729 3526
bledar@kaden.nyc
(917) 808 9495
ben@kaden.nyc
One World Trade Center Ste 8500 New York, NY 10007
www.kaden.nyc info@kaden.nyc
