The Quarterly / Q1 2025

Q1 2025 Market Report

Office-to-Rental Conversions & NYC's 6% Value Lift

Published March 2025

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Office leasing rebounds, retail rents firm in prime corridors, hospitality holds its lead, and investment sales build a base for recovery.

A New Horizon for NYC Property

The Manhattan commercial real estate market entered the first quarter of 2025 by establishing a predictable baseline for recovery. Following a period of capital markets stagnation, the market began finding its floor. Office leasing volume surged to structural highs, premium retail corridors experienced significant supply absorption, and hospitality assets maintained robust national pricing power.

While the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, the predictability of the cost of capital allowed transaction volume by count to climb. This set the stage for institutional re-pricing across the borough.

Decade-High Office Velocity and Prime Corridor Firming

The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated that tenant demand for highly amenitized, modern spaces is deep enough to drive macro availability downward.

Office Submarket Bifurcation & Large-Format Velocity

Manhattan office leasing reached 11.4 million square feet in Q1, marking the strongest first-quarter performance since 2019. Demand was anchored by a return of large-format activity, highlighted by 16 leases of 100,000 square feet or more that totaled roughly 4.0 million square feet. This sustained velocity pulled Manhattan’s overall availability rate down by 70 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 15.7%—the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Concurrently, the average asking rent rose to $74.53 per square foot, registering its first net increase in seven quarters.

Submarket performance varied significantly by geography and asset class:

  • Midtown: Led the borough’s recovery as availability compressed to 14.9%, the lowest level recorded in more than four years. Leasing was heavily concentrated in Penn Plaza/Garment Market (1.8 million square feet), Grand Central (1.79 million square feet), and the Plaza District (1.43 million square feet).

  • Midtown South: Availability sat at 17.1%. While still elevated against its 9.1% pre-COVID baseline, technology and media demand drove an inversion of historical leasing behavior: Class A spaces captured 44.6% of sector volume, outperforming Class B assets (36.7%) as tenants prioritized renovated space.

  • Downtown: Logged approximately 2 million square feet of leasing volume. Activity was anchored by a major expansion from Jane Street Capital, which increased its Brookfield Place footprint at 250 Vesey Street to nearly 1 million square feet.

Retail Corridor Performance

Manhattan retail leasing volume climbed 14% year-over-year on a rolling four-quarter basis, reaching 3.5 million square feet. New-to-market retailers served as a vital demand source, accounting for approximately 29% of quarterly activity.

While the borough’s aggregate average asking rent slid to $659 per square foot due to the mechanical lease-up of premium, higher-priced spaces, prime corridors firmed dramatically. Landlords in SoHo’s Broadway, Madison Avenue, and Upper Fifth Avenue captured consistent premium brand absorption, pushing direct ground-floor availabilities down to 188 spaces across the borough. Food and beverage operators remained the most active tenant category by total deal count.

Market Metric / CorridorQ1 2025 PerformanceQuarter-Over-Quarter DirectionUnderlying Market Context
Manhattan Investment Sales

$2.7 Billion

▼ -17% Q/Q

Transaction count climbed 12% to 84 trades

Manhattan Office Asking Rent

$74.53 / SF

▲ First rise in 7 quarters

Driven by a 69.6% market share for Class A stock

Manhattan Retail Asking Rent

$659 / SF

▼ Modest compression

Reflects the lease-up of top-tier premium spaces

Manhattan Hotel RevPAR

$229.00

▲ +7.3% Y/Y

Powered by an ADR-led pricing recovery

— Key takeaways
  1. NYC values rose ~6% overall, with the rental apartment sector alone up 9.9% — confirming where institutional and private capital is concentrating.
  2. Brooklyn led every borough in Class 2 growth at 15.3%, outpacing Manhattan in both rental and commercial valuations.
  3. Office-to-Rental Conversions represent a structural shift, not a one-off. ~19,000 units targeted in the next 8 years, with tax breaks and zoning incentives layered in.
  4. Property tax bills are rising in FY 26 — total assessed value up 3.9%. Owners modeling forward operations should account for the lift.
— Sources
  • Colliers. Manhattan Office Market Report — Q1 2025. colliers.com/en/research/new-york/nyc-q1-2025-manhattan-office-report, April 2025.
  • Commercial Observer. Trading Firm Jane Street Grows to Nearly 1M SF at Brookfield Place. February 14, 2025.
  • Plehn, R. Overview of Manhattan Commercial Office Market Q1 2025. richardplehn.com — citing Colliers Manhattan Office data, April 2025.
  • CBRE. Manhattan Retail Figures — Q1 2025. As reported in Commercial Observer, April 8, 2025.
  • PricewaterhouseCoopers. Manhattan Lodging Index — Quarterly Update. pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/hospitality-leisure/manhattan-lodging-index.html
  • Avison Young. Tri-State Investment Sales — First Quarter 2025 Manhattan Property Sales Report. avisonyoung.us, April 2025 (Manhattan south of 96th Street; confirmed transactions above $5M, retail above $1M).
  • Federal Reserve. H.15 Selected Interest Rates. federalreserve.gov/releases/h15
  • Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY). Manhattan Retail Report — H2 2024. rebny.com — corridor commentary applied to Q1 2025 conditions.
  • CoStar Group. Q1 2025 commercial real estate market commentary, April 2025.
  • Savills USA. Manhattan Q1 2025 Office Market Report. savills.us, April 2025.
  • Transwestern. Manhattan Office Market Posts Strongest Q1 Leasing Activity in Over a Decade. transwestern.com, April 22, 2025.
  • Commercial Observer. Law Firm Mayer Brown Expands to 331K SF at 1221 Avenue of the Americas. February 4, 2025.
  • Office of the New York City Comptroller. Fiscal Note 6-2025: Office-to-Residential Conversions in NYC. comptroller.nyc.gov
  • Ariel Property Advisors. New York City Office-to-Residential Conversions: Here’s What We Know. arielpa.nyc/insights
  • Vornado Realty Trust. Vornado’s Retail JV Completes $350 Million Transaction with UNIQLO. investors.vno.com, January 8, 2025.

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Get in touch

Get the full Q1 2025 Report

Download the PDF version with charts, comp tables, and source data.

Get in touch

Get the full Q1 2025 Report

Download the PDF version with charts, comp tables, and source data.